Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Run Might End in September, This Indicator Says

Bitcoin’s BTCUSD Supply in Profit indicator drops to levels that might be signaling the ending of the bull market, pseudonymous analyst @Yonsei_dent says in CryptoQuant Insights. Amid a painful BTC price drop, its “Fear and Greed” index touched September 2023 levels.

Bitcoin BTCUSD Supply in Profit rate hints at possible bear market coming

Based on the performance of past cycles, it appears that a major bull market phase is set to last a minimum of two months more. This statement was made by an on-chain analyst who goes by @Yonsei_dent on X (formerly Twitter) and published by the CryptoQuant Insights series.

Levels of Correction Based on Supply in Profit

“Compared to past cycles, it appears there are still at least two more months remaining in the major bull market phase.” – By @Yonsei_dent

Read more 👇— (@cryptoquant_com) June 25, 2024

These estimations are based on the Supply in Profit indicator performance in previous cycles. This metric demonstrates the percentage of the circulating supply of BTC that is in a profitable position. The CryptoQuant analyst researches the long-term moving average (1,500 DMA) for the indicator, with a ±1 standard deviation (SD).

Typically, the indicator goes through three deep corrections (30-40%) for every bull market. In the current bull run, it already experienced a 21% drop in May, while the ongoing price drop erased 16% percent more of BTC’s value.

The writer shared an alarming conclusion for Bitcoin BTCUSD bulls regarding the prospects of the largest cryptocurrency in Q3, 2024:

Compared to past cycles, it appears there are still at least two more months remaining in the major bull market phase. It is intriguing to see whether there will be another significant surge after this correction. If the Supply in Profit breaks below the +0.4 SD and approaches the 1,500 DMA, it may indicate the beginning of a bear market.

By press time, the Bitcoin BTCUSD price attempts to stay above the $61,500 level, being down almost 17% compared to its March 2024 top.

Bitcoin BTCUSD Fear and Greed index drops to 10-month low

In the past week, the orange coin lost 5% of its value on the news of the start of the Mt. Gox compensation program that might trigger selling pressure this July.

Such uncertainty resulted in the rapid drop of Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index. Today, it plunged to 30/100, which can be called the “Fear” zone.

In its most rapid drop since FTX’s collapse, Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index lost over 60% in one week. The metric has not been so low since mid-September 2023.

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